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Module 04
FX Research Desk
Direct + cross pair coverage · COT positioning · central-bank state · rate differentials · gate-based deployment discipline.
Broad USD index
Index Jan 2006=100
119.28
+0.2% YoY · 36 obs
US 10y / 2y curve
10y - 2y
+0.49%
10y 4.57% · 2y 4.08%
Fed - ECB differential
Policy rate gap (Fed upper − ECB DFR)
+1.75%
Fed 3.75% · ECB 2.00%
USD/CNY · WTI
USD/CNY
6.8092
WTI 112.3 USD/bbl
Central bank state — policy cycle & bias8
| Bank | Currency | Policy rate | Cycle | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | USD | 3.75% | holding | Higher-for-longer rhetoric; SOFR pinned to target range. |
| ECB | EUR | 2.00% | cutting | Disinflation progress allowing a measured cutting path. |
| BoE | GBP | — | holding | Sticky UK services inflation keeps the MPC patient. |
| BoJ | JPY | — | hiking | Policy-normalization track; intervention risk on weak yen. |
| BoC | CAD | — | cutting | Disinflation on track; data-dependent on labor. |
| RBA | AUD | — | holding | Sticky services and tight labor keep policy on hold. |
| RBNZ | NZD | — | cutting | Soft growth allowing the easing cycle. |
| SNB | CHF | — | neutral | Sight-deposit policy + safe-haven flows define the franc. |
Direct pairs (vs USD)7
| Pair | Bias | COT gate | Tech gate | Status | Fundamental note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD short | short | red | amber | not ready | Relative growth, trade flow, and carry unwind keep the fundamental bias short AUD/USD. |
| EUR/USD watch | watch | amber | amber | partial | Dollar relative strength is still relevant, but entry timing needs macro confirmation. |
| GBP/USD watch | watch | amber | amber | partial | Sticky UK inflation against a firm dollar leaves the pair two-sided pending data. |
| NZD/USD watch | watch | green | amber | partial | Soft NZ growth and dairy terms-of-trade vs a firm USD; range-bound pending RBNZ. |
| USD/CAD watch | watch | amber | amber | partial | Energy terms-of-trade and rate spreads frame a range; no directional edge yet. |
| USD/CHF watch | watch | green | amber | partial | SNB sight-deposit policy and safe-haven flows dominate; watch the SNB statement track. |
| USD/JPY watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | Policy-normalization risk in Japan caps the carry; watch for intervention zones. |
Cross pairs (no USD leg)12
| Pair | Bias | COT gate | Tech gate | Status | Fundamental note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | Classic risk-on tape; commodity tape and BoJ policy define direction together. |
| AUD/NZD watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | Antipodean policy gap drives directional moves; mean-reverting on commodity correlation. |
| CAD/JPY watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | Energy-vs-yield cross; tracks WTI and BoJ rhetoric jointly. |
| CHF/JPY watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | Safe-haven differential; flows-driven more than yield-driven. |
| EUR/AUD watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | Reserve-currency vs commodity beta; reads as risk-off proxy when AUD softens. |
| EUR/CAD watch | watch | amber | amber | partial | Reserve vs energy beta; correlated with risk-on / commodity tape. |
| EUR/CHF watch | watch | amber | amber | partial | SNB tolerates a stronger franc on safe-haven flows; ECB cutting cycle frames a range. |
| EUR/GBP watch | watch | amber | amber | partial | ECB-BoE policy gap and UK services inflation define the range; both sides intervene with rhetoric. |
| EUR/JPY watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | Reads as risk-on proxy; widening ECB-BoJ differential keeps a structural bid, intervention caps the top. |
| GBP/AUD watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | UK rate path vs Australian commodity tape; trades wider than EUR/AUD. |
| GBP/JPY watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | Highest-vol yen cross — carry-friendly but exposed to BoJ policy surprises. |
| NZD/JPY watch | watch | red | amber | not ready | Carry-sensitive cross; RBNZ-BoJ rate gap is the structural driver. |
COT positioning — net non-commercial · percentile bar7
| Currency | Net non-commercial | 1y percentile (short ← 50 → long) | Report date |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD Australian Dollar | 85,644 | May 19, 2026 | |
| CAD Canadian Dollar | -31,231 | May 19, 2026 | |
| CHF Swiss Franc | -36,937 | May 19, 2026 | |
| EUR Euro | 33,513 | May 19, 2026 | |
| GBP British Pound | -64,307 | May 19, 2026 | |
| JPY Japanese Yen | -93,905 | May 19, 2026 | |
| NZD New Zealand Dollar | -40,613 | May 19, 2026 |
The FX desk outputs research, gate status, and risk-plan drafts only — never trade signals or orders. COT positioning is sourced from the CFTC public reporting API; rate differentials come from FRED daily series. Cross-rate biases combine BOTH legs' positioning conservatively (red wins).