マクロ月次 · 2026-05

2026 年 5 月のマクロ環境: 成長 neutral/61、インフレ caution/77、ドル caution、リスク supportive、GDP ナウキャスト +4.50%

2026 年 5 月のレジーム判断は、成長が中立、インフレが警戒、ドルが警戒、リスク環境がサポーティブである。当四半期の GDP ナウキャストは +4.50% で、レンジは +3.90% ~ +5.10%。先行ダッシュボードは expansion-coherent で、プラスシグナルは 5 件、マイナスシグナルは 0 件。全ての数値は macroedge_macro_observations の元データに基づく。

レジーム基準日 May 23, 2026発行日 May 23, 2026· gpt-5.5

3軸レジーム — 成長 · 流動性 · 信用 · インフレ

今月の主軸:4軸レジームスコア。

Growthneutral

+57.00

Growth axis mixed; signals split between leading and coincident.

Inflation pressurerisk

+97.00

Inflation hot; policy + rate risk material.

Liquiditysupportive

+70.00

Liquidity loose; Fed balance, real rates, repo conditions ease.

Creditsupportive

+94.00

Credit conditions benign; spreads tight, NFCI loose.

GDP ナウキャスト — 2026Q2

中心値（年率）

+4.50%

レンジ

3.90% — 5.10%

σ ≈ 0.60pp

モデル

macroedge-bridge-nowcast-v1

Bridge-equation nowcast

分量寄与（pp）

Trend potential growth: +2.00pp
ISM Manufacturing PMI gap: +0.94pp
Industrial production YoY: +0.41pp
Retail sales YoY: +0.73pp
Nonfarm payrolls 3-mo chg: +0.17pp

Component bars

Trend potential growth

+2.00pp

ISM Manufacturing PMI gap

+0.94pp

Industrial production YoY

+0.41pp

Retail sales YoY

+0.73pp

Nonfarm payrolls 3-mo chg

+0.17pp

Initial claims gap from 250k

+0.25pp

GDP 予測クロス検証 — 当社 vs アトランタ連銀 GDPNow

当社のブリッジ方程ナウキャストとアトランタ連銀公式 GDPNow を並べて表示。

当社ブリッジ方程

+4.50%

Target 2026Q2 · macroedge-bridge-nowcast-v1

GDPNow (アトランタ連銀)

+4.26%

2026Q2 · Atlanta Fed

差

+0.24pp

方向一致 — 高信頼度

当社ブリッジ方程

+4.50%

GDPNow (アトランタ連銀)

+4.26%

GDPNow history — last 8 quarters

Target	GDPNow (SAAR %)	Signal
2026Q2	+4.26%	expansion
2026Q1	+1.24%	slow growth
2025Q4	+4.24%	expansion
2025Q3	+3.47%	expansion
2025Q2	+2.90%	expansion
2025Q1	-2.73%	contraction
2024Q4	+2.27%	expansion
2024Q3	+2.79%	expansion

GDP deep nowcast — 13 variables × 3 models ensemble (2026Q2)

Triple-model GDP nowcast ensemble: (A) 6-var simplified bridge (baseline), (B) 13-var extended bridge (ISM + credit spreads + real rates + sentiment + permits + SPX 6M), (C) Atlanta Fed GDPNow. Weighted by historical RMSE (20/45/35). Model B coefficients OLS-calibrated on 1985Q1 — 2025Q4, N=48, R²=0.751, OOS RMSE 2.72pp.

📅 BEA GDP release calendar — next printsBEA schedule →

2026Q1T-6d

Second

2026-05-29

2026Q1T-34d

Third

2026-06-26

2026Q2T-68d

Advance

2026-07-30

BEA publishes 3 estimates per quarter: Advance (~30d after qtr-end) → Second (+30d) → Third (+30d). Our ensemble nowcast tracks each release.

A. Simple bridge (6 vars)

+4.50%

Baseline

B. Extended bridge (12 vars)

+2.86%

High-fidelity

C. GDPNow (Atlanta)

+4.26%

External baseline

★ Ensemble

+3.68%

low agreement

95% confidence interval (historical out-of-sample RMSE)2.01% ↔ 5.34%

σ ≈ 0.85pp · model dispersion 1.64pp

Ensemble nowcast for 2026Q2: +3.68% SAAR (95% CI 2.01% — 5.34%). Of 12 leading indicators, 7 support growth, 5 oppose, 1 neutral. Top positive contributions: High-Yield OAS (gap from 4.5% median) (+0.85pp), Industrial Production YoY (+0.80pp). Top drags: Building permits YoY (leads housing ~12mo) (-0.00pp), Initial jobless claims (gap from 250k neutral) (-0.02pp). Significant model disagreement (dispersion 1.64pp) — monitor ISM/employment/credit early signals.

12-variable current readings & contribution

High-Yield OAS (gap from 4.5% median)pro

2.78· Pct14· z -0.99+0.85pp

HY OAS 2.78% very tight

Industrial Production YoYpro

1.35· Pct66· z +0.29+0.80pp

IndPro +1.4% mild expansion

Retail Sales YoY (consumption ~70% of GDP)pro

4.87· Pct67· z -0.02+0.68pp

Retail +4.9% moderate

S&P 500 6-month return (leads GDP 6-9 mo)pro

14.29· Pct71· z +0.90+0.41pp

SPX +14.3% positive

ISM Manufacturing PMIanti

48.50· Pct2· z -1.56+0.30pp

PMI 48.5 mild contraction

Nonfarm payrolls 3-mo changeneutral

144.00+0.04pp

+144k slowing

10Y-3M curve (inverted = recession warning)pro

0.88+0.00pp

Curve 0.88% normal

Building permits YoY (leads housing ~12mo)anti

-0.21· Pct32· z -0.34-0.00pp

Permits -0.2% contracting

Initial jobless claims (gap from 250k neutral)pro

209,000· Pct18· z -0.55-0.02pp

Claims 209k very low

ISM New Orders (most leading sub-index)anti

47.20· Pct2· z -1.69-0.17pp

New orders 47.2 contracting

10Y Real Rate (TIPS, gap from 0.5%)anti

2.18· Pct99· z +2.14-0.74pp

Real rate 2.18% very restrictive

UMich Consumer Sentimentanti

49.80· Pct1· z -2.05-1.39pp

Sentiment 49.8 weak

Chicago Fed NFCIpro

-0.52· Pct20· z -0.81-1.50pp

NFCI -0.52 loose

📊 Model methodology & calibrated coefficients

Calibrated

2026-05-23

Sample N

R²

0.751

OOS RMSE

2.72pp

Method: OLS via numpy.linalg.lstsq · Target: GDPC1 YoY % (year-over-year real GDP growth) · Period: 1985Q1 — 2025Q4

OLS regression coefficients (* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001):

Variable	β	SE	t	p
趋势 (intercept)	+3.5930	0.887	4.05	0.0001	***
ISM PMI gap from 50	-0.2005	0.116	-1.73	0.0834
ISM New Orders gap from 50	+0.0605	0.069	0.88	0.3784
Industrial Production YoY	+0.5878	0.098	6.00	0.0000	***
Retail Sales YoY	+0.1385	0.066	2.10	0.0354	*
Payrolls 3-mo change (M)	+0.3036	0.122	2.49	0.0129	*
10Y-3M curve inverted (1=yes)	+0.0000	—	—	—
Claims gap from 250k (units of 50k)	-0.0211	0.023	-0.93	0.3518
NFCI level	+3.4473	1.819	1.89	0.0581
HY OAS gap from 4.5%	-0.4962	0.479	-1.04	0.3000
Real rate gap from 0.5%	-0.4386	1.584	-0.28	0.7819
Sentiment gap from 85 (/20)	+0.0395	0.023	1.73	0.0838
Building Permits YoY	+0.0111	0.024	0.45	0.6494
SP500 6-month return %	+0.0289	0.054	0.53	0.5951

Model B Extended bridge equation (coefficients approximated via OLS on 1985-2024 quarterly GDP YoY):

β₀ = 1.95 (trend potential growth)
β₁ × (ISM_PMI − 50) — manufacturing momentum
β₂ × (ISM New Orders − 50) — most leading sub-index
β₃ × IndPro YoY
β₄ × Retail Sales YoY (consumption ~70% of GDP)
β₅ × Payrolls 3-mo Δ (millions)
β₆ × 1{10Y-3M inverted} → −0.85pp
β₇ × (250k − ICSA) / 50k
β₈ × NFCI (tight financial conditions: −0.40pp)
β₉ × (HY OAS − 4.5%) — credit spread tilt
β₁₀ × (Real rate − 0.5%) — restriction level
β₁₁ × (UMich sentiment − 85) / 20
β₁₂ × Building permits YoY (leads housing ~12 mo)

Each component clipped to [±2.5pp]; total clipped to [−6, +8]. 95% CI based on historical out-of-sample RMSE ≈ 0.85pp.

Federal Reserve dashboard — policy · money · inflation · growth

Four core series with reference lines — Policy rate (DFEDTARU) · M2 YoY (money supply) · CPI YoY vs 2.0% target · GDP YoY vs 1.8% long-run trend. Plus Fed Balance Sheet total + 10Y real rate. Designed after fx-hedge-analysis.

Fed Funds Target Upper (DFEDTARU)10y · 3.75%

3.75%

M2 Money Supply YoY %Signed bars

+4.6%

CPI YoY % — vs 2% TargetFed 2.0% inflation target

3.95%target 2.0%

Real GDP YoY % — vs 1.8% trendFOMC SEP long-run

+2.66%trend 1.8%

Fed Balance Sheet Total (WALCL)$6.71T

6.71T

QT pace: $25B/mo Treasuries + $35B/mo MBS run-off.

10Y Real Rate (DFII10)2.18%

2.18%

10y TIPS yield — discount rate for long-duration equities. >1.5% pressures growth stocks.

Field of Play — マルチインデックス

各指数のレジーム + bear-line(−20%)までの距離。

NASDAQCOMbull

26343.97

DD -1.1%

to bear-line 23.6%

SP500bull

7473.47

DD -0.4%

to bear-line 24.5%

VIXCLSbull

16.76

DD -68.0%

to bear-line -60.0%

ハイライト5

成長 — 中立（61/100）
インフレ — 警戒（77/100）
ドル — 警戒（39/100）
リスク — サポーティブ（88/100）
GDP ナウキャスト 2026Q2: +4.50%

注意すべきリスク3

Inflation に注意: スコア 77/100 — Inflation is off target; rate sensitivity stays elevated.
USD Regime に注意: スコア 39/100 — The dollar is softening; watch rate-differential compression.
政策反応は、実績データとは分けて追跡する必要がある。

主要マクロ指標スナップショット

各タイルは最近の推移を表示。

LEADING20 core indicators — drives direction (long/short bias origin)

ISM Mfg PMI

48.5

Δ -0.20 · YoY -7.4%

ISM New Orders

47.2

Δ -4.10 · YoY -13.1%

ISM Deliveries

50.9

Δ -2.90 · YoY -18.0%

ISM Employment

46.8

Δ -2.80 · YoY -10.2%

GDPNow

4.26%

Δ +3.02 · YoY +76.5%

Initial Claims

209.0K

Δ -3000.00 · YoY -0.9%

Building Permits

1.4K

Δ +79.00 · YoY -0.2%

30Y Mortgage

6.51%

Δ +0.15 · YoY +8.9%

Consumer Sentiment

49.8

Δ -3.50 · YoY -4.6%

Policy Uncertainty

212.3

Δ -55.17 · YoY -53.9%

10Y-2Y Spread

0.43%

Δ -0.06 · YoY -12.2%

10Y-3M Spread

0.88%

Δ -0.01 · YoY +31.3%

HY OAS Spread

2.78%

Δ -0.02 · YoY +0.4%

IG OAS Spread

0.75%

Δ +0.00 · YoY -5.1%

BBB OAS Spread

0.94%

Δ -0.01 · YoY -5.1%

BB OAS Spread

1.66%

Δ -0.02 · YoY -1.8%

CCC OAS Spread

9.39%

Δ -0.01 · YoY +3.1%

Chicago Fed NFCI

-0.52%

Δ -0.01 · YoY +0.0%

WTI Crude

$112.25

Δ +3.26 · YoY +3.3%

Henry Hub NatGas

$3.07

Δ +0.18 · YoY +16.3%

COINCIDENT10 coincident — confirms direction

Nonfarm Payrolls

158.7K

Δ +115.00 · YoY +0.2%

Industrial Production

102.5

Δ +0.69 · YoY +1.4%

Retail Sales

757085.00

Δ +3715.00 · YoY +4.9%

ISM Production

45.7

Δ -4.10 · YoY -11.9%

ISM Inventories

47.0

Δ -1.50 · YoY -4.3%

Housing Starts

1.5K

Δ -42.00 · YoY +4.6%

JOLTS Openings

6.9K

Δ -56.00 · YoY -1.2%

Fed Balance Sheet

6.71T

Δ -14859.00 · YoY +1.5%

Treasury TGA

—

Reverse Repo

Δ +0.00 · YoY +0.0%

LAGGING6 lagging — validates direction

Real GDP

24174.53

Δ +118.78 · YoY +7.7%

CPI Headline

332.4

Δ +2.11 · YoY +3.9%

Core CPI

335.4

Δ +1.26 · YoY +3.0%

Core PCE

129.3

Δ +0.38 · YoY +3.2%

Unemployment

4.30%

Δ +0.00 · YoY +2.4%

Case-Shiller HPI

327.3

Δ +0.95 · YoY +0.7%

MARKET6 market prices — cross-asset context

Broad USD Index

119.3

Δ +0.61 · YoY +0.2%

10Y Real Rate

2.18%

Δ +0.05 · YoY +11.2%

5Y Breakeven

2.54%

Δ -0.03 · YoY -1.6%

SOFR Overnight

3.51%

Δ +0.01 · YoY -3.0%

VIX

16.8

Δ -0.68 · YoY -3.6%

London Gold PM

—

今月のマクロ判断

今月のレジーム判断は、4次元の評価と当四半期 GDP ナウキャストで整理される。GDP ナウキャストは +4.50% で、レンジは +3.90% ~ +5.10%。先行ダッシュボードは expansion-coherent であり、5 件のプラスシグナルに対して、マイナスシグナルは 0 件である。全ての数値は macroedge_macro_observations の元データに基づく。

先行指標の詳細分析

各タイルは現在値 + 月次変化 + 12週推移を表示。

ISM Manufacturing PMIexpansion

56.30

MoM +4.60 · YoY +3.1%

ISM New Ordersexpansion

63.80

MoM +9.70

ISM Productionexpansion

62.50

MoM +5.30

ISM Employmentexpansion

53.40

MoM +3.30

ISM Supplier Deliveriesexpansion

60.40

MoM +3.60

ISM Inventoriesexpansion

54.00

MoM +5.80

10y-2y Treasury Spreadnormal

0.43

MoM -0.06

10y-3m Treasury Spreadnormal

0.88

MoM -0.01

Initial Jobless Claimsstable

209,000

4w 202,500 · 12w 208,083

Building Permitscontracting

1,442

· YoY -0.2%

Consumer Sentiment (UMich)weak

49.80

· YoY -4.6%

Chicago Fed NFCIloose

-0.52

Full written analysis

ISM 製造業 PMI は 56.3、前月差は +4.6、前年同月差は +3.1% で、expansion と評価される。

ISM の内訳では、ISM New Orders が 63.8、前月差 +9.7。ISM Production は 62.5、前月差 +5.3。ISM Employment は 53.4、前月差 +3.3。ISM Supplier Deliveries は 60.4、前月差 +3.6。ISM Inventories は 54.0、前月差 +5.8。

イールドカーブでは、10y-3m Treasury Spread が +0.88% で、normal と評価される。

新規失業保険申請件数は 209,000/wk、4w avg は 202,500、12w avg は 208,083 で、stable と評価される。

消費者信頼感は 49.8、前年同月差は -4.6% で、weak と評価される。

建設許可件数は 1,442 SAAR、前年同月差は -0.2% で、contracting と評価される。

金融環境指数（NFCI）は -0.52 で、loose と評価される。

クロス指標シンセシス

成長支持シグナル

成長反対シグナル

一貫性判断

expansion-coherent

5 pro

ISM PMI at 56.3 (expansion)
new orders at 63.8
curve positive at 0.88
claims contained at 209,000
NFCI loose (-0.52)

前期判断の検証

前期スナップショットはないため、今回が初回実行である。次月レポートで、今期の判断を検証する。

ドルと金利

USD regime は警戒（39/100）。The dollar is softening; watch rate-differential compression.

リスク資産環境

Risk appetite はサポーティブ（88/100）。Credit spreads tight, NFCI loose, VIX low — risk-on tape.

注意点

注視すべき警戒読み値は、Inflation と USD Regime である。

本レポートは研究目的のみで、投資助言ではありません。